Chairman of the Board The Thai Capital Market Business Council looks at 2024-2025 and points out that it is prepared to receive good news and the possibility of lower interest rates. After the central bank stopped raising policy interest rates We will see a reduction in the middle of 2024 and are confident that the Thai economy will begin to improve following the challenge of the global economic slowdown. Advise the Thai private sector to adjust production to focus on clean energy and care for the environment. To adjust to the needs of the world market Pointing out that this year's economy will grow 3-4 percent, not considered bad. Dr. Kobsak Phutrakul, Chairman of the Board The Federation of Thai Capital Market Businesses or FETCO said that overall, the world economy in 2024 is still in a period of slowdown. But not to the point of a severe slowdown. This is because risk factors such as the war in the Middle East or the Russian-Ukrainian war will return to be more severe. But it's not serious, even if it d oesn't end quickly. But it is believed that it will not be more serious than this. This makes it likely that the world economy will improve at the end of this year onwards. Including the direction of interest rates after the Federal Reserve (Fed) delayed raising the policy interest rate, resulting in the opportunity for each country's central bank to Including the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will begin to reduce interest rates from the middle of 2024 to 2025, averaging at least a reduction of not less than 1 percent. However, Thailand's policy interest rate is considered to have increased less than other countries where Thailand averages at 2.5 percent and it is expected that the trend of Thailand's policy interest rate is likely to see a decrease from the middle of 2024 onwards, which will affect It has a positive effect on the overall economy and business of Thailand, including the financial market. The capital market and various types of bonds will receive lower interest rate costs. Therefore, it is seen that the Thai economy this year will grow at least 3-4 percent, considered to be growth following the support of government measures. Investment promotion both the market and the capital market in which many countries will invest Especially investments in clean energy and others, etc. In addition, the Thai economy has been affected by various factors, especially COVID and others, for 5 years. 2024 is considered a challenging year. Even though world interest rates are rising to the point of affecting inflation. But the trend of falling interest rates will result in a decrease in inflation. Even though Thailand's inflation rate has dropped to negative for 3 consecutive months, this is still not considered abnormal. Because it is a decreasing rate due to the decrease in world energy and the government's measures to reduce the cost of living. Therefore, Thailand's inflation rate should not be a concern. But what will have to be followed are the government's continued measures after this. How will it come out to stimu late the economy? In addition, even Chinese products are likely to enter the Thai market. But overall it should have a positive effect on Thailand in the competition. As a result, Thai manufacturers will have to adapt to the world's demand for products that will focus on environmental care, whether it be electronic products, electric cars, petrochemicals, and tourism. They will have to focus on the world's needs as well. However, it is still seen that this year's investment in the Stock Exchange of Thailand It should be better than in the past. Where investors move their investments to other markets of more than 200,000 million baht or invest in the bond market, they will return to invest in the Thai stock market. But will it be as much as before? There is no need to follow up. But it is considered normal for investors to move their investments to make profits per investment. Therefore, this year investment profits are still considered stable. Including bonds, in the past year many companies were found to la ck liquidity and have problems. It is also seen that the financial institutions at the end of the bond loan need to be followed up and resolved in a better way. In this regard, stocks related to environmental care after being issued 'Thailand Mutual Fund for Sustainability' (Thailand ESG Fund: Thai ESG) during the month of December 2023, just 3 weeks, there were more than 100,000 people interested in buying this fund for more than 6,400 million baht, with a profit of more than 81 million baht, therefore I see that the opportunities for these funds can still grow a lot. and the direction of Thai exports has begun to turn positive. Foreign tourism in Thailand is increasing. It is expected that this year more than 35 million tourists will enter Thailand, who will have money to stimulate the Thai economy in 2024 and 2025. In addition, from the results of the survey of the Investor Confidence Index (FETCO Investor Confidence Index) in December 2023, it was found that the Investor Confidence Index (ICI) for the next 3 months is at the level of 137.00, adjusted. rose 38.9% from the previous month to be in the "hot" category, with investors viewing the inflow of capital It is the most confidence-boosting factor. Followed by the recovery of the tourism sector and government economic stimulus measures. While the factor that drags down investor confidence the most is the recession of the domestic economy. Followed by an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (FED) and capital outflows. Even though the confidence index for all investor groups in the next 3 months (March 2024) is in the "hot" range (index value range 120-159), an increase of 38.9% from the previous month. came to a level of 137 confidence among individual investors and the securities company accounting group were in the "stable" category, the foreign investor group was in the "hot" category, while the institutional investor group was in the "hot" category. 'Very hot' The most interesting business category is the banking category (BANK). The mos t uninteresting business category is the petrochemicals and chemicals category (PETRO). The supporting factor that has the most influence on the Thai stock market is the inflow of Funding The dragging factor that has the greatest influence on the Thai stock market is the recession of the domestic economy. 'Survey results as of December 2023 by investor group found that investor confidence in all groups increased from the previous month. The individual investor group increased 29.4% to 119.70, the securities company accounting group increased 16.7% to 100.00, the domestic institutional investor group increased 17.9% to 160.00, and the foreign investor group increased 50.0%. at the level of 150.00 SET Index increased in December. This was supported by many positive factors, such as the results of the US Federal Reserve (FED) meeting which resolved to maintain the policy interest rate at the level of 5.00% - 5.25% and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) which resolved to maintain the policy interest rate. at the level of 2.50% as the market expected Also supported by the opening of sales of the Thai Sustainable Mutual Fund (ThaiESG). However, trading volumes in December 2023 were relatively light as foreign investors entered the long Christmas holiday. The average daily trading volume in December 2023 was 39,980 million baht. Foreign investors returned to net buys in December of approximately 70 million baht. Since the beginning of 2023, foreign investors have continued to net sell more than 192,083 million baht at the end of the year. December 2023 SET Index closed at 1,415.85, increasing 2.6% from the previous month. Foreign factors that must be followed include: The trend of easing monetary policy in major economies such as the United States and Europe due to inflation falling faster than expected. and China's economic stimulus policy. In addition, geopolitical risks are also issues that need to be watched. Both the situation between Israel and Hamas The unresolved conflict in Russia-Ukraine and the results of the elec tion in Taiwan on January 13, 2024, which will be an important decisive point in the possibility of war between Taiwan and China. As for domestic factors that are worth following, they include public investment that is likely to expand lower than expected due to the delay in the 2024 Budget Act, the recovery of the export sector from the global trade trend. There is a higher expansion. and the recovery of the tourism sector after Chinese investors came in less than expected.- Source: Thai News Agency