Bangkok, Analysts at TISCO Securities point out that the banking business group has high investments. Don't just look at the profit numbers, but also look at the net interest income margin (Net Interest Margin or NIM) compared to regional stock markets. Mr. Apichat Phubanjerdkul, CISA Senior Director Strategic Analysis Division TISCO Securities Company Limited gave an interview on the investment minute program, Channel 9 MCOT HD, mentioning the case of Mr. Settha Thavisin, Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. Post messages via social media Warning that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) raising interest rates even though inflation has been negative for many consecutive months is not good for the economy. And it affects people with low incomes and SMEs. It is seen that if we look at the total numbers of stocks in the banking group Considered to have a relatively high profit. This is because last year was a period of rising interest rates. It will have a positive effect on the profits of stocks in the banking grou p. However, it must be fair. It is impossible to look only at the numbers as a profit-making period. You must also look at the difference in net interest income or Net Interest Margin (NIM) compared to regional stock markets. This is because the banking group has invested heavily in setting up systems such as IT systems and various security systems. Including a system to facilitate online transactions. And the rate of return on equity or ROE (Return on Equity) of banking stocks is 6-8%, lower than 10%. However, in the case that occurred This may be a factor that makes investors worried that government policy will take over. But the agency that oversees the banking group is the BoT, which sees that the BoT has an opportunity to reduce interest rates. But it's not likely within this year. which must depend on inflation and the economic situation as well Evaluating the direction of interest rates this year, it is expected that the BoT will maintain interest rates at the original level of 2.5%. While the direct ion of the Thai stock market This week is in the correction period. The movement range is estimated at 1410 - 1440 points. Investors are becoming more cautious after the SET index increased for 5 consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, the US labor market is stronger than expected. Non-agricultural employment increased by 216,000 positions in December 2023 from the market's expectation of 170,000 positions, which may cause investors to reconsider whether When will the Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year? And how much has it decreased? The market may have expected as high as 70% that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in March, but it dropped to 60% after the employment numbers were released. And it is expected that investors are still waiting for US inflation figures to be announced on January 11, 2024. If it expands more than the market expects, it may cause the market to fluctuate. Because the market's expectations are quite high. Apart from this, there is also the case of corporate bonds. Ita lian-Thai Public Company Limited Development (ITD), which has been rumored to be at risk of defaulting on debt payments. Therefore, it is expected that there will be pressure on the investment atmosphere this week as well. Source: Thai News Agency