Bangkok, August 23 – "Anusorn" advises the economic team to postpone the time and increase the salary. increase wages for digital money transfers Fear of affecting the budget deficit
Prof. Dr. Anusorn Tamajai, former Director Office of Public Policy Development The Prime Minister's Office said that there is no need to rush the digital wallet distribution policy during this period. should use this policy When the economy is in crisis If still moving forward, the budget for the year 2024 is still unable to support it, so seek additional sources of borrowing at least 500 billion baht, which may cause the budget deficit to exceed 1 trillion baht for pushing welfare policies. And increase income for people through raising the minimum wage to 600 baht in 2027 and increasing the salary of a bachelor's degree to 25,000 baht. It takes a while. when the economy recovers
As for the land allocation policy for farmers, it is a good thing. because it is an important factor of production As for increasing the price of agricultural crops, the method of increasing yield per rai should be used. Adding value through innovation and marketing Try to avoid price intervention. because it is a burden on the budget It is prone to leakage and weakens the agricultural sector in the long run. It is expected that the economic growth in 2023 will grow by 2.5-3 percent as a result of the recovery of the tourism sector. Some improvements in consumption The investment sector will recover more clearly in the fourth quarter after the government is established. Even after more than 3 months of delay
Pheu Thai Party focuses on economic policies. Investors and financial markets therefore responding in a more positive way Large capital groups that rely on monopoly power will be affected. Opening the door to more opportunities for small and medium-sized capital, the new government therefore focused on stimulating the economy. with various populist and welfare measures to please the people Now the economy is not in crisis. It just has an expansion rate below its potential. Tourism began to recover, consumption and investment gradually improved. Although exports are still negative It is expected that the second half of the year will be better. delay in forming government It is also a problem for the economy. because the preparation of the 2017 budget was delayed
considered that the new government should not focus on giving money to stimulate the economy but should give weight to also creating a new income base for the people and the economic system by creating new sources of income from innovation, creativity solving structural problems of the economy and society including political structural problems The new government must move forward immediately to fix it as follows:
The problem of the distorted and undemocratic political system from the 2017 constitution requires a new constitution to be drafted. Need to review, demolish, improve National strategy and national reform without public participation lack of dynamics in response to change Must move forward to reform the independent organization system, the senate system, and push for peace in the three southern border provinces with political and economic measures instead of military measures. Thailand should be a host for peace and democracy in Myanmar. There was peace and order along the Thai-Myanmar border.
Population structure problem in aging society The working-age population is declining. Facing the problem of labor shortage The tax base shrinks as the working-age population decreases. Thailand has the elderly over 60 almost 20 percent of the population this year. Most of the elderly population has insufficient savings for their necessity. The payment of the subsistence allowance was not enough. A pension system must be created for the elderly who are outside the formal labor welfare system. The birth rate is less than the death rate in 2021, the fertility rate is only 1.16 (fertility rate is below 2.1, the population will start to shrink), with the 6th lowest fertility rate in the world. go In the next 60-70 years, the population of Thailand will drop to half and most of them will be elderly people if Thai society is full of elderly people. Who will pay taxes, who will work, who will take care of nursing care for the elderly? The new government must have a strategy. Clear policies and action plans to solve the problems of the population structure from now on.
The ratio of household debt to GDP for a long time exceeding 80 percent will affect the stability of the financial system and limit economic growth. The latest figures for the first quarter of this year The ratio of household debt to GDP has risen to almost 91 percent. Debtors have a habit of incurring new debt to repay old debts more than ever, reflecting that the insolvency and debt traps are getting worse and even more interest rates are rising. Debt problems became more difficult. When not incurring debt to pay But to pay off the original debt The effect of consumption spending on the economy is less.
Economic inequality and cross-generational poverty traps Thailand has one of the world's top economic inequality problems and became more severe during the 2020-2021 crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a structural problem that requires major economic reforms. There are also a large number of intergenerational poor households. Most of these households lack savings, low education and high dependency rates. By the most important factor The factors that make households fall into the category of skipped-generation poor households are the lack of financial security due to lack of savings (60.3%), followed by the lack of education. from the fact that children aged 6-14 years have not received compulsory education for 9 years (36.4%), with many children having to drop out of the education system.
Problems of fair income distribution and educational opportunities An increase in the minimum wage of 600 baht by 2027 will provide some relief. creating educational opportunities Improving workforce skills and increasing workforce productivity is more than just a long-term answer to a long-term challenge.
Deteriorating competitiveness and lack of new engines to drive economic growth The weakness of the Thai export sector Most of Thailand's industrial businesses are not the industrial businesses of the future. There are very few New S Curve industry businesses.
Consistently increasing welfare costs especially the health welfare States have income restrictions. Must reform the social security fund big time. To cope with the aging society social security fund There could be liquidity problems in the next 30 years if there is no increase in contributions or extending the retirement age for pensions.
Environmental problems and the deterioration of natural resources are major problems in Thai society. both serious air pollution problems Severely polluted water Toxic waste problems, saline soil, lack of water in the dry season flooding in the rainy season What the new government has to seriously invest in solving the problem because it affects the quality of life of everyone.
Marijuana policies should limit medical use only. And should encourage research for medical use should not be used for recreational purposes because it is addictive. .-Thai News Agency
Source: Thai News Agency
