Bangkok: The upcoming election on February 8th is shaping up to be a highly competitive and unpredictable event, with significant party switching and fierce competition for government seats.
According to Thai News Agency, Associate Professor Sukhum Nuansakul has analyzed the current political environment, noting that despite numerous polls, a majority of the public remains undecided about their choice for Prime Minister.
A recent poll by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) reveals that over 40.6% of voters have yet to choose a candidate. Professor Sukhum sees this as a crucial opportunity for all political parties, including those vying for prime minister, to win over the undecided voters. Any party that can present a compelling vision or create a focal point in the remaining time could potentially rise to prominence.
Professor Sukhum highlights that the Bhumjaithai Party holds a clear advantage over other parties. As the ruling party, Bhumjaithai is able to leverage the civil service mechanism for its campaign efforts. It is reported that a significant number of civil servants have been transferred before the Election Commission’s regulations took effect. Additionally, Bhumjaithai has been actively using a “power of attraction” strategy to bring in groups of MPs and influential figures from other parties, managing them within factions with specific KPIs and seat targets to secure major ministerial positions.
The alliance between the Bhumjaithai Party and the Kla Tham Party is also a key strategy to observe. Professor Sukhum notes that the Kla Tham Party, despite not having outstanding poll results, enjoys strong local support. This merger aims to create a combined majority, enhancing their chances of forming a government post-election. This strategy mirrors the 1986 election, where a similar alliance allowed second and third-ranked parties to surpass the first-place party in government formation.
As for the Pheu Thai Party, also known as the People’s Democratic Party, Professor Sukhum suggests that if they fail to secure 250 seats independently, they may end up in the opposition. Criticisms exist that some voters feel deceived by the party’s promises, and reliance on popular sentiment may not be enough against competitors’ strong local support bases.
The Democrat Party, on the other hand, is seen as lacking a “flashy” presence or standout individual to draw significant votes. Although party leader Abhisit has seen an increase in poll numbers, the party needs prominent candidates for constituency seats to regain public confidence.
This election represents not just a contest of popularity but a complex interplay between public opinion and political strategy. Parties like Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham, which have organized and consolidated their representatives, have positioned themselves as pivotal players in the government formation process.