Bangkok: The Bank of Thailand (BOT) indicates that the forecasted 2026 GDP growth of 2.3% remains far below potential, with some economic sectors recovering while others continue to decline.
According to Thai News Agency, Don Nakornthab, assistant governor for the monetary policy group, stated that although the central bank's 2.3% growth projection for 2026 is currently the highest in the market and better than previously forecasted, it is not a good figure. This is because it remains quite far from Thailand's economic potential.
Furthermore, there is an underlying inequality, with the recovery being K-shaped. This means some sectors are recovering while others continue to decline, with strength concentrated only in the export and technology sectors. As a result, economic benefits do not reach the majority of the population.
Regarding inflation, the risk has decreased moderately after global oil prices began returning to pre-war levels. However, risk factors cannot be ruled out yet due to three major factors: the incomplete cost pass-through from producers to consumers; the El Nino phenomenon, which will affect the climate and cause fresh food prices to rise during the third and fourth quarters of this year; and the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East situation, which could affect oil prices at any time.