Bangkok, May 17 – “Auspicious plants” symbolize the beginning of the rainy season and rice cultivation. But El Niño in the second half May pressure rice production in 2023 to decrease by 4.1-6.0%

Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd. Analyzes from high rice prices will incentivize most farmers to continue growing rice despite facing high production costs The price of rice in the world market continues to stand high. This is driven by the high demand of the world market. to deal with the food security crisis which has been affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushing up world grain prices Measures to restrict India's rice exports due to reduced rice stocks This, together with the bad weather, has devastated rice production in key producers and big consumers like China. with increased demand from the opening of the country

In the first 4 months of 2023, the average export price of Thai rice increased by 16.3 percent (YoY) and the average price of paddy sold by farmers in the country increased by 18.1 percent (YoY), thus motivating most farmers to continue. Cultivation of paddy fields and taking good care of the rice plants despite facing high production costs (Chemical Fertilizer Price pesticides and pesticides, energy prices) and faced lower rainfall at the start of the planting season. According to the data on the average accumulated rainfall throughout Thailand during 1 Jan. to 14 May '23, it was found that the accumulated rainfall was about 57 percent less than the same period last year and still less than the same period of the previous year. an average of 28 percent

However, there is a high possibility that Thailand will enter the El Niño phenomenon. in the second half of 2023, which will be a risk that the rice crop may be damaged more compared to the previous year Because in the period after planting in May, it will be the time when the rice plants need more water. for use in growth before it's ready to harvest Therefore, the amount of rainfall must be monitored. and rainy conditions for the remainder of this year. The Meteorological Department expects that the total amount of rain throughout the country during the rainy season of 2023 will be less than last year. and about 5 percent less than the average

Kasikorn Research Center viewed that if the first phase of the El Niño phenomenon in 2023 is not so severe, including the lack of rain that lasts for a short time, it is expected that rice production in 2023 may decrease by 4.1-6.0 percent or accounted for 25.1-25.6 million tons. Most of the rice production in the rice field is grown outside the irrigation zone. Combined with the production of off-season rice at around 7.6 million tons, or a 23.4 percent increase (YoY), the total production of Thailand's rice in 2023 may be around 32.7-33.2 million tons, or an average still growing slightly at 7.4 percent. 0.3 (YoY), which is expected to be the total amount of rice production that is still sufficient for domestic consumption. And exports are expected to increase from the previous year. However, if severe drought occurs or the rain left for a long time It may cause more damage to rice production. and may affect the overall rice production of the country to be lower than the estimated framework

In addition, the El Niño phenomenon Will affect the amount of water costs in the dam that have accumulated at the end of 2023 to decrease, which is water to use for growing rice in the off-season in 2024, together with the forecast that El Niño is likely to last for a long time, so there is a risk that both off-season and first-season rice production for Thailand in 2024 will decline.

The way to deal with and is still urgently needed is a systematic water management plan. by all sectors, especially the public sector must be prepared to deal with efficient water management for agriculture Both provide a reserve water source. Tools/machines to support water for cultivation, such as water pumps. Water pushers, water trucks, etc., which will help reduce damage to agricultural products. It also helps reduce risks that will affect Thailand's food security in the future. While farmers themselves may have to adjust to reduce production costs. by turning to use more organic fertilizers instead of chemical fertilizers It may also consider changing some agricultural areas to grow crops that use less water such as cassava and sugarcane. which is an economic crop that tends to have high prices in the world market It may be an option for farmers to have alternative income. amid rising risks of water shortages for agriculture in the future. – Thai news agency

Source: Thai News Agency