Bangkok, Thai Oil expects Crude oil prices this week remained stable as the geo-conflict situation remains tense. Amidst the slowing economic growth numbers Thai Oil Public Company Limited expects the price of West Texas crude oil this week (15-19 Jan.) to move in the range of 70 - 77 USD per barrel, while Brent crude oil moves in the range of 74. - 81 USD per barrel as a result of the still tense geo-conflict situation in the Red Sea after the Houthi rebels increased their attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea. It claims it is in response to Israel's military operations against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. and warned of attacks on all ships bound for Israel. as an expression of support for Palestine This makes the market concerned about the impact on oil exports from the Middle East. However, analysts expect crude oil supply to still be affected in a limited way if the US And Iran has not had a direct confrontation. Markets continue to monitor the impact of oil well closures in Libya. After Liby a continues to close the Sharara oil field, which is a large oil field. of the country and has a production capacity of up to 300,000 barrels per day. from protests by workers at oil companies in the country If the oil well closure continues to be closed continuously This may affect the oil supply which will become more tight. In addition, analysts expect that there may be additional production cuts from the OPEC+ group, which will take place on February 1, 2024, that the group will have a policy to reduce production. Produce more to balance the world oil market? Analysts expect that more production cuts may be considered from the United States, Guyana, Venezuela and Brazil, in addition to the latest meeting. Saudi Arabia Russia and six other allied countries have volunteered to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day. Until the 1st quarter of 2024 However, the market is still under pressure from economic figures, including the world economic growth rate (GDP) that tends to grow less. and Euro zo ne inflation that tends to increase. Meanwhile, the amount of crude oil in US inventories It is expected that it will increase. After the amount of gasoline inventory and diesel increased As a result, the market is worried that oil demand is likely to decrease. Most recently, the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report forecasts global economic growth (GDP) in 2024 at +2.4%, a decrease from 2023 at 2.6% and a decline for 3 consecutive years from the impact of War situation in the Middle East and in Europe coupled with the Chinese economy slowing down This resulted in the World Bank lowering its outlook on the European and Chinese economies. (Compared to the previous forecast in June '22) while having a better view of the US economy. European Central Bank (ECB) policy makers expect that the EU zone economy will continue to decline after inflation rose to 2.9% in December 2023. However, investors expect that the ECB may cut interest rates at least 5 times within 2020. Year 2024, with the first reduction in March or April 2024 to keep inflation at 2% within 2668. Summary of the oil price situation last week (8 - 12 Jan. '24) The price of West Texas crude oil decreased by 1.13 USD per barrel to 72.68 USD per barrel, as well as the price of West Texas crude oil. The price of crude oil decreased by 0.47 USD per barrel to 78.29 USD per barrel. Dubai crude oil price closed on average at 79.03 USD per barrel due to concerns about tight oil supply due to tensions in the Middle East. The Israeli Self-Defense Force (IDF) warned that the war against Hamas would continue and could spread to other fronts. creating concern for investors that The war tends to intensify. Including the impact of the closure of the Sharara oil well and figures from US non-agricultural employment. An additional 216,000 jobs were added in December, more than analysts expected. that there will be an increase of 170,000 jobs, with better employment supporting Want to use more oil In addition, the market also expects that the US Federal Reserve ( FED) will start lowering interest rates in March as well. However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released figures for US crude oil inventories. For the week ending January 5, 2024, it increased by 1.3 million barrels to a level of 432.4 million barrels, which is contrary to analysts' forecast that it would decrease by 0.68 million barrels. Source: Thai News Agency