Bangkok: Kasikornbank is anticipating fluctuations in the Thai baht in the upcoming week, with potential movements expected in the range of 32.10-33.10 baht per dollar. The financial institution is closely monitoring the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's meeting, alongside developments in the Middle East, which are set to unfold next week.
According to Thai News Agency, the Kasikorn Research Center has noted that the Thai baht experienced a weakening trend in the early to mid-week period due to declining global gold prices. Concurrently, the US dollar strengthened, driven by its status as a safe-haven asset amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East. This follows reports of the US retaliating against Iran after the downing of an Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with Iran's announcement to re-close the strait. Strong US economic indicators, like non-farm payrolls and CPI figures, have also contributed to speculation that the Federal Reserve might tighten monetary policy later in the year. This led to the baht reaching its weakest level in over two months at 32.99 baht per dollar, before recovering slightly to close at 32.70 baht per dollar on June 12, 2026, after positive signals regarding US-Iran relations.
For the week of June 15-19, 2026, Kasikorn Bank projects the Thai baht to continue trading within a specified range. The Kasikorn Research Center has identified key factors to observe, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting results and interest rate indications from the Fed's new Dot Plot. Additionally, foreign fund flows and the evolving Middle East situation remain critical variables.
The US economic data expected to impact the market includes the New York Fed's manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey for June, industrial production, housing starts, import and export price indices, retail sales, and pending home sales for May, along with weekly jobless claims. Moreover, global economic data such as May's figures from China and inflation data from the UK and Japan, as well as outcomes from central bank meetings in several countries, including the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and the Bank of England (BOE), are anticipated to influence market dynamics.
Last week, the Thai stock index exhibited volatility due to geopolitical concerns and foreign investor activity. The market initially declined, aligned with regional markets, amid fears that rising oil-driven inflation could prompt interest rate hikes by various central banks. However, a market recovery was observed towards the end of the week, spurred by positive international market signals and improved US-Iran relations, closing the SET index at 1,592.41 points on June 12, 2026, marking a 0.62% increase from the previous week, despite a 25.36% decrease in average daily trading volume.
Looking ahead to June 15-19, 2026, Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. predicts support levels for the Thai stock index at 1,560 and 1,550 points, with resistance levels at 1,610 and 1,625 points. Key factors to watch include the Federal Reserve meeting, Middle East developments, and foreign capital flow trends. Important economic data from the US, Eurozone, and China, as well as central bank meetings, are also expected to play significant roles in influencing the market trajectory.