Bangkok, Krungsri expects the baht this week to trade in the range of 35.55-36.25 baht/dollar, waiting for the Fed chairman's announcement. Estimated general inflation in February in Thailand is negative for the 5th month. Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited assesses that the baht this week (4-8 March 2024) is likely to move in the range of 35.55-36.25 baht/dollar compared to last week. The baht closed stronger at 35.94 baht/dollar after trading in the range of 35.77-36.09 baht/dollar, while the dollar weakened against the euro and yen last week. After the United States reported 4Q23 GDP growth of 3.2%, it was revised down from 3.3% but is still considered a strong level. While the president of the New York Fed stated that While the Fed must continue to slow inflation down to its 2% target, he acknowledged that the Fed has a chance of lowering interest rates this year based on economic data. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy price s, rose 2.8% in January, the weakest increase in nearly three years. The yen strengthened. After a member of the Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) commented that the BOJ is likely to eventually achieve its inflation target, this is a signal for the cancellation of the negative interest rate policy in the future. In the past week Foreign investors sold Thai stocks for 6,725 million baht but bought bonds for 657 million baht. In February, the baht depreciated 1.3%, the highest among emerging markets in Asia. However, in February foreign investors returned to net buying Thai stocks. For the first time in 13 months For this week's overview Krungsri's Global Markets Group revealed that investors will follow the Fed chairman's policy statement to the House of Representatives. Including February US service and employment data. Meanwhile, the market expects that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June. In addition, it is expected that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain interest rates at 4.0% this week. Krungsri views that the review of the Fed interest rate direction forecast of the market which is more in line with the Fed's thinking and economic data. This will limit the uptrend in US bond yields and the dollar. especially If the wage figures indicate easing inflationary pressures, for domestic factors It is expected that headline inflation in February in Thailand will remain negative for the fifth month, while the BoT governor stated that lowering policy interest rates will not help support the economy much but admitted that the economy is recovering slowly. The Ministry of Commerce revealed that January exports grew 10% from the same period last year. This is the highest rate in 19 months and higher than the market expected. Source: Thai News Agency