Bangkok: Amidst the heated political situation, particularly the issue of the dissolution of parliament, which has been rumored to happen earlier than the original schedule of January 31, 2026, if the opposition submits a no-confidence motion, Associate Professor Dr. Muhammad Kiwayat Yaprang from the Faculty of Political Science at Ramkhamhaeng University has joined in analyzing the game and the possible impact on the forum.
According to Thai News Agency, Dr. Muhammad believes the opposition is unlikely to submit a no-confidence motion, as Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has clearly stated that if a no-confidence motion is submitted as “revenge,” the Prime Minister will dissolve Parliament first. A dissolution of Parliament would directly impact the constitutional amendment process, a core issue the People’s Party has consistently pushed for. If Parliament is dissolved, the constitutional legislation currently being worked on by committee would also collapse. Therefore, a dissolution of Parliament would make the situation less “easy” for both the Pheu Thai and the People’s parties.
However, Chaturon Chaisang believes that the Prime Minister’s invocation of the dissolution of Parliament may be a way to avoid the debate motion and cannot be claimed as “political revenge.” If the government causes damage to the country and its people, the opposition must act as a scrutiny. Dr. Muhammad points out that the Prime Minister’s talk of dissolving Parliament is a way to reprimand the opposition, as the government has the dissolution card in hand, while the opposition has the debate card.
Dr. Muhammad analyzed that if Parliament is dissolved, the Bhumjaithai Party, which leads the coalition government, has a significant advantage, especially as a caretaker government. Therefore, rather than submitting a debate and having Parliament dissolved early, the opposition’s better strategy is to let the situation unfold and use various issues (such as the border issue or the scammer problem) to gradually “erode, undermine, and destroy” the Bhumjaithai Party. This action would diminish Prime Minister Anutin’s “aura.” However, if Parliament is dissolved early, the Bhumjaithai Party will not be “bruised” and the damage from various information sources will be minimal, which will be more beneficial to the existing coalition parties.
If parliament is dissolved (whether sooner or later), Dr. Muhammad assesses that the existing coalition parties still have a high chance of forming a new government. The Bhumjaithai Party is expected to win more than 100 MP seats, possibly around 110. The Kla Tham Party is expected to win approximately 50 seats, which will come from MPs from other parties flowing in to form an alliance. The Pheu Thai Party is expected to get less than 100 MP seats, maybe only 80, because past performance and past policies have made people no longer have confidence in the policies. Some MPs will flow to the Bhumjaithai Party and the Kla Tham Party.
Dr. Muhammad is confident that once a new government is formed, regardless of who leads it, the Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties will be able to agree to co-operate in a government, as has happened in the past. The power structure will remain the same. The key factor that keeps election results revolving around the same power base is the political structure and political institutions that remain the same.
The constitution has not been amended. Control mechanisms remain: Election Commission, Senate, Constitutional Court, National Anti-Corruption Commission and other organizations. The big house political system still dominates, especially in provincial elections, where patronage systems still influence election results. Although the Prachachon Party has momentum and can ignite in the elections, the current political structure may not yet have enough “light or fire” to win more than half of the MPs. Furthermore, there are mechanisms to “cut off legs,” such as the case of 44 MPs that the National Anti-Corruption Commission is considering. This is a matter that must be closely monitored, as it may not be a normal process, but a case in which “timing, opportunity, and time” are important factors.
As long as the constitution and the political institutions that govern election results are not amended, the chances of the former powers joining forces to form a new government remain high. Politics is therefore something we must continuously monitor, as the people who come to govern the country will affect all of us.