Bangkok, Academics look at the position and strengths of 'ASEAN' amidst a global situation full of pressing factors, but are confident that ASEAN is still strong and will continue to be strong, and are keeping an eye on the results of the election of the new US President, which may cause a new round of the US-China trade war to return. CIMB Thai is not slow to lead customers to grow in ASEAN, delighted with almost 100 billion baht in loans in 2024, confirming that the Thai economy in 2024 will definitely grow by 2.3 percent, with a policy interest rate reduction this December. Dr. Amorntep Chawala, Senior Vice President, Head of Research, CIMB Thai Bank, said at the press conference 'Think ASEAN, Think CIMB' organized by CIMB Thai Bank to celebrate ASEAN Day, which falls on the 8th day of the 8th month of every year that 'Amidst the global situation, geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, and the upcoming US presidential election, it seems that growth in ASEAN will inevitably be affected. No matter who becomes the US president, the big picture policy of the US-China trade war should not be different because since the trade war, the US trade deficit with China has been continuously decreasing. ASEAN has benefited from this change. When China cannot export to the US, the influence of China's trade with ASEAN has multiplied. At the same time, many ASEAN countries have increased their trade surplus with the US. Even Singapore, which had a trade deficit with the US, has reduced its deficit, while the US has also increased its trade deficit with ASEAN. ASEAN is not coping well enough with a new trade war. A decline in global trade could impact ASEAN's trade and investment connectivity. The benefits and impacts for each country depend on their own internal factors, such as competitiveness, investment attractiveness, and government facilities. While global foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 2% to $1.3 trillion in 2023 amid economic slowdown and rising geopolitical tensions, the bottom line is that FDI in ASEAN countr ies increased by 1% to $226 billion. Singapore is the top FDI recipient in Southeast Asia, followed by Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, according to UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2024, reflecting a clear picture of the world shifting its production base to ASEAN. However, despite the many negative factors that have occurred, Thailand's trade and investment still has the opportunity to grow, although not too high. Thailand's GDP in 2024 will be positive and grow by 2.3%. And what is expected is the opportunity for the Bank of Thailand to reduce the policy interest rate in December. It is expected to be reduced from 2.5% to 2.25%, supported by fiscal policy through the digital wallet project that will bring money into the Thai economy during the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2025. Mr. Wut Thanittiraporn, Senior Executive Vice President, Corporate and Transaction Banking, CIMB Thai Bank, said that the US-China trade war has reduced the US-China trade dependence and led t o more trade with other countries with potential, which is an opportunity for entrepreneurs in ASEAN countries to do business with new partners in the global market. Since the demand from the US and the world is still growing continuously, it is an important opportunity for entrepreneurs in Thailand who are ready to have the opportunity to grow and expand their businesses in ASEAN countries as well. Therefore, the most attractive destinations for investment right now are Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. Starting with Malaysia, which is a neighboring country that Thais can access the most easily, it is outstanding in the service sector and the production of goods that use advanced technology. It is a market with potential for future growth. In 2023, there will be more than 329 billion ringgit of investment flowing into Malaysia, an increase of 23%. However, from the previous year, it is the highest value in the history of the country. The main exports of Malaysia are electrical and electronic products, pet roleum products, natural gas, palm oil and telecommunications equipment. Next, Indonesia, which has a prominent feature in the growth of the population, which currently has more than 280 million people and has continuous GDP growth, has a tendency to have a growing demand for consumer goods. In 2023, Indonesia recorded an investment inflow of 47.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 6%. The largest sources of FDI in Indonesia are Singapore, China and Hong Kong. The basic metal industry receives the most FDI. Indonesia's main exports are coal, palm oil, iron and steel. Singapore, the region's financial and trade hub, in 2023 saw FDI inflows of SGD214 billion, up 10%, mainly driven by increases in registered capital and retained earnings. The top five investment destinations were the United States, the Netherlands, China, Japan and Chongqing. The largest market share of FDI was in the financial services and insurance sectors, while the main exports were petroleum, machinery and chemicals. In Thailand, from Jan uary to June 2024, foreign and domestic investors submitted investment promotion applications to the Board of Investment (BOI) increased by 35%, with a total value of 458 billion baht. In the first half of 2024, the electrical and electronics industry sector ranked first with an investment value of 139 billion baht (30.5% of the total investment application value of BO1), followed by the automotive sector at 39.9 billion baht (8.7% of the total value) and advanced agriculture at 33.1 billion baht (7.2% of the total value). Mr. Wut added that 'In terms of Mega Trends that are worth watching at this time, there are 4 main groups: 1. Sustainability or the transition to sustainability. In the past, we have seen new emerging markets such as clean energy, electric vehicles, or recycled products continuously emerge. 2. AI or artificial intelligence that can be used to develop and increase efficiency in work and production in all sectors, resulting in continuous exponential growth in demand. 3. Food Security or food security is another issue that large countries are paying a lot of attention to, especially countries with high populations and population growth. 4. Consumer Behavior or the behavior of new-age consumers who emphasize convenience, speed, and easy access to information sources for desired products, causing the business sector to adapt to the needs of new-age consumers. However, the upcoming trends, coupled with the strengths of the ASEAN region, will certainly create new opportunities for the business sector. CIMB is ready to support and push Thai entrepreneurs to grow in the ASEAN region. There are experts who have the know-how and networks to work closely with locals who know the market well, which is called ASEAN total solutions. Importantly, CIMB Thailand is currently negotiating additional business loans abroad for both existing and new customers, up to 300-500 million US dollars, which will be in the clean energy, AI, and food groups. Previously, more than 2 billion US dollars were lent, so this year C IMB Thailand's total loans will continue to grow. It is expected to total almost 100 billion baht, which is an increase from last year's 80-90 billion baht. Ms. Panida Tangsriwong, Senior Executive Vice President, Financial Institutions in Thailand and CLMV, CIMB Thai Bank, said, 'For the growth of businesses in ASEAN, what is essential is the money that will be used to support them, whether through direct investment, investment through various securities, stocks in the stock market, or debentures (indirect investment). However, most countries in ASEAN still have cautious exchange rate policies and have rather strict capital movement regulations. Investors who see growth opportunities therefore look for banks that understand these regulations and can provide the best advice, as well as having risk management tools to effectively manage highly volatile currencies and interest rates for customers. CIMB can meet all needs. In addition, CIMB Group and CIMB THAI have been trusted to act as intermediaries in prov iding Cross-border QR Payment services, a cooperation between countries in the ASEAN region that focuses on promoting tourism and international trade to be more flexible. Currently, those traveling to 7 ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos) including Hong Kong and Japan do not need to carry cash because they can pay by scanning QR codes via the application of banks in Thailand and making payments immediately. CIMB Thai Bank is one of the banks that are jointly promoting this project between Thailand and Malaysia and Thailand and Indonesia, etc. Source: Thai News Agency