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Several negative factors drag down industrial confidence index for third month

Bangkok, The FTI president stated that the impact of both domestic and international economies dragged down the industrial confidence index in June 2024 to 87.2, down from 88.5 in May 2024, and down for the third consecutive month. He suggested that the government urgently find ways to provide assistance, both directly and indirectly, to entrepreneurs in all industrial sectors. He also implored the government to take care of electricity costs and minimum wages, which have a significant impact on private costs. Mr. Kriangkrai Thienukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), and ML. Pikthong Thongyai, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), mentioned the results of the survey on the industrial confidence index in June 2024 at 87.2, down from 88.5 in May 2024, decreasing for the third consecutive month and the lowest in 24 months. When considering the components of the index, it was found that all components decreased, including total purchase orders, total sales, production vo lume, operating costs, and operating results. There were negative factors from the domestic economy that was still recovering slowly due to domestic demand that had not fully recovered while consumer purchasing power was still weak due to the problem of non-performing loans (NPLs) that were accelerating, especially for housing, cars, credit cards, and personal loans, causing domestic consumption to slow down. Meanwhile, SME entrepreneurs are facing liquidity problems, lack of cash flow in their businesses, and have more difficulty accessing loans because financial institutions are more cautious in approving loans. In addition, the shortage of containers and cargo ships is still an ongoing problem, causing freight rates to increase, while political uncertainty affects entrepreneurs' confidence. However, in June, there were still supporting factors, such as measures to promote domestic tourism during the low season and visa-free measures to attract foreign tourists, while the expansion of foreign demand, espec ially in the US, ASEAN, India, and China markets, which have begun to recover, as well as the depreciation of the baht, have had a positive effect on the export sector. In this regard, from a survey of 1,341 entrepreneurs covering 46 industrial groups by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) in June 2024, it was found that the factors that entrepreneurs were increasingly concerned about were oil prices at 62.4 percent, the domestic economy at 63.4 percent, and the domestic political situation at 49.4 percent, respectively. The factors that entrepreneurs were less concerned about were the global economy at 61.9 percent, loan interest rates at 57.1 percent, and exchange rates (from an exporter's perspective), with the exchange rate referencing the baht against the US dollar at 35.1 percent, respectively. While the index forecast for the next 3 months is at 93.4, down from 95.7 in May 2024, the lowest in 33 months since October 2021, with risk factors from the policy of increasing the minimum wage to 400 bah t nationwide affecting confidence in operating costs, especially for SMEs, while uncertainty in geopolitics affects energy prices and the global production chain. In addition, the new round of the US-China trade war, as the US announced additional import tariffs on Chinese goods, may cause Chinese goods to compete in Thailand more. However, there are still positive factors from government spending and investment that will increase in the third quarter of 2024, helping to support economic growth. However, the FTI's recommendations to the government are: 1. Propose that the government find a solution to the shortage of containers, including freight rates and surcharges that have increased on all routes, such as issuing measures to subsidize transportation costs for SMEs. 2. Propose that the government issue measures to prevent foreign goods from dumping in the domestic market in order to reduce the impact on entrepreneurs, as well as to promote the use of products produced in the country (Made in Thailand or M iT). 3. Accelerate the disbursement of the government budget to meet the target and have the budget recipient consider setting a faster delivery period so that disbursement can be completed by September 2024. It is also pleasing that the government has encouraged government agencies to turn to buying Thai products, resulting in more than 1,002,000 million baht in money circulating in Thailand, and it is expected that within 2 years, if continued promotion, the money will increase by more than 200,000-300,000 million baht, which is considered a way for money to circulate in the country. I would like the government to promote this measure by allowing Thai private companies to turn to buying and using Thai products, and allowing private companies to use it to reduce taxes, which will make Thai products more acceptable. 'The concern for the entire industrial sector is that the production costs will increase due to the problems of oil, electricity and labor costs that will increase further, which will reduce Thai land's competitiveness. As can be seen from the 5 months of 2024, more than 358 businesses have closed. If we include the past year until now, there are as many as 2,000 factories and it is likely to increase, especially Thai SMEs that may close down quite a bit. Importantly, Thailand's electricity costs are higher than neighboring countries, such as Vietnam at 2.70 baht per unit, Indonesia at 3.30 baht per unit, while Thailand's electricity costs are 4-5 baht per unit. Furthermore, the new electricity costs for September-December 2024, as assessed by the Energy Regulatory Commission, have 3 approaches, most of which are considered higher and may reach 6 baht per unit, which is not beneficial to the Thai industrial sector at all. And the government is preparing to increase the minimum wage to 400 baht nationwide in October 2024. This will definitely be a trigger for the industrial sector to close down or reduce its workforce. Therefore, the private sector, both the FTI and the NESDB, would like to implore the government to help maintain these measures at an appropriate level. Because if they are too high, it will not only affect Thai private sectors, but also affect the decision of foreign private sectors to invest in Thailand as well,' said Mr. Kriangkrai. Source: Thai News Agency