Bangkok: The Thai baht experienced significant volatility, weakening to its lowest level in 14 months before rebounding towards the end of the week. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market reversed course to close higher, driven by buying interest following a ruling on the 400 billion baht loan decree. Kasikorn Bank indicates that next week will focus on events related to the Federal Reserve, the Middle East, and fund flows.
According to Thai News Agency, during the week of July 6-10, 2026, the Thai baht weakened, following the trend of other Asian currencies and global gold prices. The US dollar strengthened due to concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East after President Donald Trump indicated the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran had ended. Additionally, market expectations increased that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates following minutes from its June 16-17 meeting reflecting concerns about inflation risks. This resulted in the baht weakening to its weakest level in 14 months, reaching 33.54 baht per dollar, before recovering towards the end of the week as dollar selling pressure eased due to signals that Iran wanted to negotiate a resolution to the conflict. The strengthening of the Japanese yen also supported other Asian currencies.
On July 10th, the Thai baht closed at 33.30 baht per dollar, up from 33.14 baht per dollar the previous week. Foreign investors continued to be net buyers of Thai stocks, purchasing 15,730.52 million baht, but there was a net outflow of 22,732 million baht from the Thai bond market, comprising net sales of 21,626 million baht in bonds and 1,106 million baht in maturing debt instruments.
For the week of July 13-17, 2026, Kasikorn Bank forecasts the Thai baht to trade within a range of 33.00-33.70 baht per US dollar. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to monitor including foreign fund flows, the situation in the Middle East, and the Federal Reserve Chairman's testimony to Congress. Important US economic data to watch includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, pending home sales, housing starts, export/import price indices and industrial production for June, the New York Fed's manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey, the preliminary July consumer confidence index, the Fed's Beige Book report, and weekly jobless claims.
In addition, the market is also awaiting Q2 2026 GDP data and June economic figures from China (such as exports, industrial production, and retail sales), as well as the Eurozone's June consumer price index.
During the week of July 6-10, 2026, the Thai stock market (SET index) initially edged up slightly at the beginning of the week before falling below 1,600 points. This was driven by selling pressure on technology and electronics stocks, mirroring regional trends, as well as news of major energy company shareholders selling their shares and concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East after President Trump indicated the temporary ceasefire with Iran had ended. However, the market recovered towards the end of the week due to buying across all sectors following the Constitutional Court's ruling that the 400 billion baht loan decree was not unconstitutional. Furthermore, some market concerns about the Middle East situation eased due to signs of negotiations between the US and Iran. As a result, the SET index closed on July 10th at 1,621.55 points, up 0.64% from the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 80,605.86 million baht, up 0.53%. The mai index closed at 226.17 points, up 2.29% from t he previous week.
For the following week (July 13-17, 2026), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. forecasts that the Thai stock index will have support levels at 1,600 and 1,575 points, while resistance levels are at 1,625 and 1,645 points, respectively. Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve Chairman's testimony to Congress, Q2 2026 earnings reports from Thai listed companies, particularly the banking sector, the situation in the Middle East, and the direction of foreign capital flows. Important US economic data includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, housing starts data, and industrial production figures for June, as well as weekly jobless claims. Other international economic factors include Q2 2026 GDP figures and June economic data from China, such as retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment, as well as the Eurozone's June CPI.