Bangkok: Thailand's food exports are projected to fall by 7.3% to 1.4 trillion baht ($42 billion) this year, as rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions squeeze profit margins, according to leading industry bodies.
According to Thai News Agency, the Federation of Thai Industries, the Thai Board of Trade, and the National Food Institute (NFI) released this forecast following a 10.5% slump in food exports during the first two months of 2026, amounting to 202.1 billion baht. The surge in energy prices, particularly due to conflicts in the Middle East, has significantly increased freight rates and insurance premiums.
Thongdee Pala, chairman of the FTI food group, stated that rising energy and logistics costs will be the main factors affecting Thai food exports this year, especially in the first half when volatility remains high. In addition to these challenges, a stronger baht and weak global demand have further pressured the sector, with exports to key markets such as the Middle East, U.S., and Southeast Asia experiencing double-digit declines.
The NFI highlighted that border tensions with Cambodia alone are estimated to reduce monthly export value by 5 billion baht. In response to these challenges, industry leaders have called on the government to stabilize fuel prices through tax cuts and the state oil fund. Despite the downturn, the NFI anticipates a gradual recovery in the second half of the year, driven by growth in 'future food' sectors, assuming the geopolitical situation does not worsen.