BANGKOK, 19 July-BOT governor reveals that the economy in the second half of the year still grows well. suggests a temporary drop in inflation But the global economy is still slowing down, affecting Thai exports. Especially the Chinese economy that did not come out well. Causing Thailand's exports this year to hardly grow

Dr. Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput, Governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT), discussed the economic and financial situation in Thailand that the Thai economy continued to recover and the second half of the year should be better than the first half. At first, we thought The economy will grow at 2.9, but the latter is expected to grow up to 4.2 from the domestic consumption factor that has recovered well. consistent with income And the main thing is tourism. This year should see the number of foreign tourists at 29 million, however, in the first half of the year the number of foreign tourists was better than expected. But in the second half of the year, it was found that Chinese tourists arrived less than expected. However, there are still tourists from other countries. to replace, thus making it possible to predict the number at 29 million people

In case of global economic slowdown will affect Thai exports especially the Chinese economy that came out not so good It is expected that Thai exports The whole year is hardly growing.

As for the news coming out of foreign countries such as the world economy In addition, during this period, bad news about China came out in both the real estate sector, consumption, exports, which affects Thailand, especially in the export sector But on the other hand, news from the US side is good news from the low recession as expected.

in terms of inflation Recently, Thai inflation is lower than expected. We expect that inflation will be lowered due to the electricity tariff measures that have been temporarily implemented. But it appears that during the 2 a month ago Inflation turned down more than expected. Part of the factor of food prices. However, this kind of low inflation is only temporary. due to the high base last year Therefore, the chance to see low inflation for a long time No, because inflation tends to increase from factors related to tourism, services, and increased capacity utilization. which has the opportunity to pass on the cost of the business sector will increase from the economic recovery coupled with the new government This will increase expenditure thus increasing pressure for inflation to rise.

However, even though inflation is down during this period, we still need to find a balance point for interest rates. in the right conditions in order for the economy to grow according to its potential From the past, interest rates on our policy are unusually low. Therefore, there must be a gradual increase in interest rates appropriately. to return to normalize from the risk factor from demand-side inflation After the economy returned, tourism recovered better than expected.

“Which does not only consider the inflation factor. but must look at long-term factors to return to normal find the right spot Balancing interest to suit the economy and expand according to potential Inflation is within the target range of 1-3% and does not cause financial stability problems. Not raising interest rates to manage inflation. Now the need to stop monetary policy normalization is not yet seen. We don't want the market to understand that inflation is down. It's good to stop raising interest rates. but inflation that goes down temporary and have a chance to come back up We want to see inflation reach a sustainable range. While the real policy interest rate is negative, if it lasts longer, it affects investors' yield-seeking behavior. There is an investment risk. Behavior of savings and borrowing is a factor that must be taken into account in order to balance interest rates, ”said the governor of the Bank of Thailand.

As for debt remedial measures The Bank of Thailand has been working continuously since the outbreak of COVID-19, which she has 4 parts of debt that are worrisome: 1. Current bad debt 2. Chronic debt 3. new debt that increases rapidly and 4. informal debt. Therefore, the BOT will issue additional measures under sustainable household debt relief. It will change the behavior of lenders and borrowers. This will be done through responsible lending measures that will take effect by January 1, 2024, and chronic debt relief measures by April 1, 2023. However, the BOT will issue a directional paper within the third quarter of 2023. this

In this regard, measures to resolve debt The Bank of Thailand will take care of debt completely. since before debt during debt Debt is starting to be a problem. and debt write-off which was in debt before It will be a matter of various advertisements. Let the lender point out the details of the interest rate. and how many installments So that the borrower is aware and does not let people become a debt trap

As for the progress of virtual banking, the Bank of Thailand has now prepared a draft. which has been sent to the Ministry of Finance and is expected to be able to be exported from the Bank of Thailand at the end of this month Subsequently, applications will open at the end of the year, and in early 2024, applicants will be named to establish a virture bank and if all goes according to the process. Will be able to open a virtual bank service in 2025, along with explaining the reasons why the Bank of Thailand has limited to apply for the establishment of 3 companies and must have a registered capital of at least 5,000 million baht to ensure that the virtual bank that is open for service must have large enough capital which must be strong without risk Because in the first year of service, there is a high chance of loss because it requires a lot of investment, such as the Bank of Korea, it takes up to three years to get the profit back. As for limiting the number to only three, because if there are many banks, there are More likely to cause problems.-Thai News Agency

Source: Thai News Agency