Bangkok, The chairman of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) is concerned about the unclear issue regarding the international wars, both in Europe and the Middle East, which are putting pressure on Thai exports. He must be careful in the second half of the year. Although the export figures are positive, exporters are charged high shipping rates. He is not worried about the value of the baht, but he asks that it remain stable, including the issue of political stability in Thailand, which must remain stable. As for the US presidential election, no matter who comes in, it will affect Thai exports in the first quarter of 2025, but he is still confident that exports in 2024 will overcome risk factors and grow by 1-2% . Dr. Chaichan Charoensuk, Chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC), said that if we look at the figures for Thailand's international trade in May 2024 compared to the same month last year, it was found that exports were worth 26,219.5 million US dollars, expandi ng by 7.2 percent, and were worth 960,220 million baht, expanding by 15.1 percent (after excluding gold, oil, and weapons, factors, exports in May expanded by 6.5 percent), while imports were worth 25,563.3 million US dollars, contracting by 1.7 percent, and were worth 947,007 million baht, expanding by 5.5 percent, resulting in a trade surplus of 656.1 million US dollars or 13,214 million baht in May 2024. This results in an overview of Thailand's international trade in January - May 2024 compared to the same period of the previous year. It was found that Thailand exported a total value of 120,493.4 million US dollars, expanding by 2.6 percent, and had a value in baht of 4,298,248 million baht, expanding by 8.1 percent (after excluding gold, oil, and weapons, exports in January - May expanded by 4.3 percent). Meanwhile, imports were valued at 125,954.1 million US dollars, expanding by 3.5 percent, and had a value in baht of 4,542,224 million baht, expanding by 8.8 percent. As a result, Thailand's trade bala nce in January - May 2024 was a deficit of 5,460.7 million US dollars, or 243,976 million baht. However, the TNDC maintains its export growth forecast for 2024 at 1-2 percent (as of July 2024), with important risk factors to watch out for in the second half of the year, including prolonged geopolitical issues, the US-China trade war, and tariffs between each other and its allies, which may affect the global trade system, including Thailand's international trade. Direct attention to the US presidential election will affect Thai trade in the first quarter of 2025. While the production cost remains high continuously, such as energy cost such as oil and electricity, minimum wage which is under consideration to increase, including shipping cost, surcharge and local charge which have increased in every route, the problem of container shortage from China's acceleration of production and export has resulted in shipping cost increasing by more than 300 percent, with the export sector being charged high shipping cost , with short containers being charged 4,000-5,000 US dollars, and long containers being charged an average of 7,000-8,000 US dollars. If the war in the Middle East and Europe is prolonged, there is a chance that shipping cost will increase further, but overall there is no shortage of shipping containers, there are enough but the transportation time is longer. As for the result of exchange rate fluctuation, there is no concern because it is believed that in the second half of the year, the baht will still weaken to 36-37 baht per US dollar, which is considered competitive in Thai trade. In addition, access to credit for the manufacturing sector has continued to be a problem, resulting in a lack of liquidity, and the recovery of the manufacturing sector by product is rather limited. Therefore, the NESDB has important recommendations, including: 1. Supervise production costs to maintain Thai exports' competitiveness, such as energy costs, electricity costs, minimum wages, and shipping costs, especially freight rates, to be at an appropriate level. 2. Exporters must plan their transportation by booking freight in advance, including negotiating with trading partners to adjust shipping rates to be in line with rising market freight rates on all routes, including managing product stocks appropriately. 3. Support and promote investment in industries with export potential, such as the electronics and electrical appliance industries, which have seen increased investment in the previous period. 4. Support sources of funds for the business sector to be sufficient for cash flow and production for export, such as providing low-interest funding sources, including providing financial advice to SMEs in planning and management. 5. Accelerate the promotion of trade promotion activities abroad to enhance the image and create opportunities for Thai products in the eyes of trading partners and consumers abroad, especially during times of international political volatility. 6. Accelerate the adjustment of Thai export projects to suppo rt long-term competition, focusing on Thailand becoming a Trading Nation. However, it is important to want the political situation in the country to be more stable and steady. This will allow exports in the second half of this year to still have a chance to expand. If exports in the second half of 2024 can be pushed to 142,200-145,200 million US dollars, or an average of more than 23,800 million US dollars per month, there is a chance that the average Thai export figures for the whole year will grow positively by 1-2 percent, in line with the projected target. Source: Thai News Agency