Washington: The jointly announced plan by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "reorganize the Middle East" is facing a major rift and risks plunging the region into a "permacrisis."
According to Thai News Agency, although both leaders initially launched coordinated attacks on Iran, such as targeting its nuclear facilities and missile systems earlier this year, political pressures within their respective countries have since caused their leadership to diverge. Trump, whose Republican party faces midterm elections later this year, desires a quick and decisive victory to capitalize on his promise of no new wars. Furthermore, he wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to lower global oil and gas prices, a key factor in his popularity. Therefore, Trump is attempting to push for secret negotiations through intermediaries like Qatar and Pakistan to reach a ceasefire agreement with Iran.
But Netanyahu, who is also facing elections in Israel this year, is under immense pressure from right-wing groups within the government and from the public. He wants to prove that Israel has decisively won the war, with his goal of completely destroying the influence of Iran and its proxy networks such as Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels, and Hamas, even if that means prolonging the war. Furthermore, he himself faces corruption charges and intense scrutiny; remaining in power during the war is therefore his best shield.
Disagreements began to leak out, escalating into a serious public dispute-a rare occurrence in the relationship between the two leaders. Trump admitted publicly that he had called Netanyahu in a fit of rage, even using abusive language and calling the Israeli leader "crazy," because Netanyahu had ordered an unannounced airstrike on Beirut, Lebanon. This action nearly scuttled the fragile ceasefire Trump was negotiating with Iran. Previously, Trump had clearly warned Netanyahu against attacking Iran's critical energy infrastructure, as it would impact global markets. However, Netanyahu proceeded with the attack, leading to Iran retaliating with missiles against Israel. Trump later claimed, in a somewhat contrived manner, that the Israeli missiles had already been fired when he called to stop the attack.
The attempts by both Israel and the United States to use decisive military force and bombings to overthrow the regime in Iran, or to subdue Israel's enemies on all sides, are repeating past mistakes of the United States, such as the 2003 Iraq War. US and Israeli attacks have not immediately brought down the Iranian regime; instead, they have fueled nationalism, causing Iranians to unite in defending their sovereignty, even if they dislike the current government. Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear infrastructure is built too deep and spread out to be completely destroyed by bombing alone. Netanyahu's defiance, coupled with Trump's inconsistent stance, is trapping the Middle East in a never-ending cycle of "attack-retaliation-temporary ceasefire."
Regarding the temporary ceasefire agreements between Iran and the United States, and between Iran and Israel, conflicts could reignite at any moment due to strategic conditions that remain precarious. When Israel proceeded with attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, disregarding US warnings, Iran immediately retaliated with missile strikes, claiming Israel violated the ceasefire terms which stipulated a halt to military operations in Lebanon. Furthermore, Iran continues to control and blockade the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthi rebels in Yemen have declared their readiness to resume attacks on cargo ships linked to Israel in the Red Sea.
Instead of a "new Middle East" where Israel is the sole superpower and Arab nations forge alliances under the Abraham Accords, Trump and Netanyahu are now facing the risk of becoming mired in a protracted war with no clear winner, a chronic crisis with increasingly bleak diplomatic solutions.