Bangkok: In the wake of severe flooding in southern Thailand, political dynamics have shifted significantly, impacting the popularity of major political parties in the region.
According to Thai News Agency, a Nida Poll has revealed that the Bhumjaithai Party has experienced a notable decline in popularity due to criticism over its flood management efforts. Meanwhile, the Democrat Party has witnessed a surprising surge in support, both at the party level and among southerners who view them as potential prime ministerial candidates. Amid the ongoing crisis, the Pheu Thai Party has opted to delay its planned no-confidence motion to avoid being perceived as divisive during this challenging time.
Assoc. Prof. Sukhum Nuansakul has provided an analysis of the Thai political landscape, emphasizing the flood’s impact on political popularity and important developments related to the no-confidence motion and constitutional amendments. The floods have caused support for many political parties to dwindle, particularly affecting the Bhumjaithai Party, which has been criticized for its handling of the crisis. Despite efforts by Mr. Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party and Prime Minister, to address the issue decisively, the establishment of multiple committees and frequent changes in leadership have led to confusion. However, the Bhumjaithai Party remains somewhat unconcerned, as no other party has prominently addressed the flooding issue.
According to the Nida Poll survey in the South, the Democrat Party is leading by a significant margin. Ajarn Sukhum noted that the Democrat Party holds a strong familiarity among southerners, often being the first choice for many. Abhisit Vejjajiva, a prominent figure from the Democrat Party, has a high personal approval rating of 25% among southerners as the preferred prime ministerial candidate. The Democrat Party also leads in party support with 28%. However, despite these favorable scores, Prof. Sukhum highlights the difficulty in converting this support into constituency MPs due to local political dynamics and shifting allegiances of former Democrat Party members.
Regarding the Pheu Thai Party, Prof. Sukhum points out that the party struggles to establish a foothold in the South, with key figures like Mr. Chulaphan and Ms. Sudarat receiving minimal support. Although the Pheu Thai Party has experience in managing flood crises, it appears hesitant to make bold statements or interventions in the South. Prof. Sukhum believes the party is more focused on criticism than action.
On broader political issues, Prof. Sukhum has shared insights into the potential dissolution of parliament and constitutional amendments. He suggests that the Bhumjaithai Party may dissolve the House if the Pheu Thai Party submits a no-confidence motion. However, concerns about obstructing constitutional amendments may delay such a move. He also hints that the Bhumjaithai Party may not genuinely support amending the Constitution despite outward appearances.
In terms of flood management, Prof. Sukhum acknowledges the challenges faced by the government in dealing with an unexpected disaster. He notes that the apology from the government was delayed, and compensation efforts have been cautious due to political pressures. Despite these challenges, no political party has managed to rise above the others in the current political landscape, leaving the situation characterized by “flooded votes.” In the end, the ability to control the bureaucracy is seen as a key advantage, which the Bhumjaithai Party currently holds. Politics, as usual, remains focused on intricacies and attacks during election periods.