Bangkok: El Ni±o is anticipated to extend its effects until 2027, as high-resolution climate data is highlighted as a critical tool in combating drought.
According to Thai News Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have forecasted a high probability of a transition into an El Ni±o phase by mid-2026. This climatic event is expected to persist until early 2027, peaking in intensity between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially affecting global economic and social systems significantly if not adequately prepared for.
Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, Mr. Suchart Chomklin, has emphasized the importance of tackling climate change and managing natural resources. He has introduced policies focusing on systematic water management, disaster prevention, and achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. These efforts include the creation of a high-resolution climate database to mitigate drought impacts, minimize losses, and enhance national resilience, alongside educating the public and relevant agencies on necessary solutions.
Dr. Pirun Saiyasitpanich, Director-General of the Department of Climate Change and Environment, highlighted that Thailand is expected to experience lower-than-normal rainfall from June 2026 to January 2027 due to El Ni±o. This could lead to reduced rainfall even during the main rainy season, and if tropical cyclones remain distant, a further decrease in rainfall during the late rainy season. Additionally, temperatures in Thailand are projected to be slightly higher than normal, potentially resulting in warmer weather from December 2026 to February 2027, impacting the usual winter conditions.
Dr. Pirun also noted that the Department is developing climate forecasts until 2100 under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These forecasts, with resolutions as detailed as 5 x 5 kilometers, include data on rainfall, temperature, and humidity, and are available for agencies to plan long-term flood and drought management. The Climate Change Information Center serves as a central repository for this data, facilitating widespread dissemination.
Furthermore, the Department, in partnership with Weather News Inc., is working on a high-resolution flood risk dataset expected by early 2027. A climate risk map detailing sub-district level hazards, such as floods, droughts, and rising sea levels, is also in development, aiming for completion by 2028. This map will be instrumental in enhancing national resilience.
The benefits of such a map include accurately identifying vulnerable areas, aiding in resource management, and shifting from reactive disaster management to proactive prevention. It also strengthens food security by guiding agricultural planning and supports resilient urban infrastructure development by informing decisions on critical infrastructure placement and design.