Bangkok: The SET Index is projected to close at 1,259.67 points by the end of 2025, marking a 10.0% decline from the end of 2024.
According to Thai News Agency, political instability, a strong baht, and a projected economic slowdown in 2026 have exerted pressure on the Thai stock market.
Mr. Sornpol Tulyasathien, Deputy Managing Director and Head of Corporate Strategy and Finance at the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), presented an overview of the stock market for December and the entire year of 2025. In December 2025, the market saw support from several factors, including valuations falling below regional averages, attractive dividend yields, and increased net buying by foreign investors. Nevertheless, the investment climate was challenged by concerns over the dissolution of parliament, the impact of a strong baht, and the anticipated economic slowdown in 2026. The SET Index, which saw a 0.2% increase from the previous month, closed at 1,259.67 points in December.
Capital inflows into Asian stock markets, fueled by the Fed's interest rate cut and a weaker US dollar, provided some support in December. However, Thailand's relatively low policy interest rate compared to other countries has signaled potential foreign investment outflows. Many listed companies have undertaken share buybacks to manage liquidity and bolster investor confidence, with dividend-paying stocks becoming attractive in the low-interest environment. The Total Return Index (TRI), particularly the SETHD TRI, has shown consistent dividend returns.
In 2025, industry groups such as Technology and Finance outperformed the SET Index. The average daily trading value of the SET and mai combined was 31,474 million baht, a 22.7% decrease from the previous year, leading to an average daily trading value of 41,405 million baht for the year. Foreign investors were net buyers of 6,202 million baht, though the year's cumulative net sales reached 107,096 million baht.
Foreign investors dominated trading, accounting for 54.08% of the total trading value, followed by domestic retail investors, domestic institutional investors, and securities firms. The mai market saw the listing of NTF Intergroup (Thailand) Public Company Limited (NTF). The forward P/E ratio of the SET at the end of December was 13.9 times, while the historical P/E ratio was 13.5 times, both lower than Asian market averages. The dividend yield at the end of December 2025 was projected at 4.04%, surpassing the Asian average.
The Futures Exchange of Thailand (TFEX) reported an average daily trading volume of 430,800 contracts in December, spurred by increases in Single Stock Futures, SET50 Index Futures, and Currency Futures. However, the average daily trading volume for 2025 was projected to decrease by 13.9% from the previous year due to declines in Single Stock Futures and SET50 Index Futures.