Bangkok: The registration period for the "Thai Helps Thai Plus" economic stimulus measure is currently a major topic of discussion. This time, the government has adjusted the subsidy ratio to 60%, with citizens paying 40%. Dr. Supavud Saichue has offered an interesting perspective, stating that although this measure involves a massive expenditure of 200 billion baht (approximately 1% of GDP), the economic stimulus results may not be as effective as expected.
According to Thai News Agency, Dr. Supavud analyzes that when people buy to "stockpile," the money circulating in the system may be around 300 billion baht, but the "economic multiplier" may only be 0.5 times. This is due to people using the money to buy essential consumer goods such as fish sauce, detergent, or rice to stockpile, resulting in a temporary increase in sales during the 4-month project period, which will then plummet afterward. This is not seen as a sustainable income-generating strategy.
Dr. Supavud suggests a long-term solution should focus on increasing income rather than just lowering the cost of living. The key to economic success is raising people's incomes. He advocates for the government to provide the private sector with more opportunities to create jobs and generate income. This includes rail transport reform by opening bidding for private companies to operate freight and tourist transport services on State Railway of Thailand tracks, and unlocking regulations on solar rooftops to allow private companies to sell excess electricity to each other.
Moreover, the "Gen Sandwich" crisis, a result of Thailand's aging society, presents another significant challenge. Thailand's Baby Boomer generation is rapidly transitioning into old age, reaching 20 million in the next 15 years. This places a heavy burden on the "sandwich group," or working-age individuals who must support both children and parents amidst slow economic growth. Dr. Supavud emphasized the importance of health maintenance to avoid burdening the public health system in later years.
In terms of geopolitics and oil prices, Dr. Supavud describes an agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a "political game" by Trump. The negotiations may disadvantage America and reduce its ability to pressure Iran. Oil prices are predicted to decrease slightly but will not easily return to $60 due to the extensive damage to manufacturing and transportation industries.
In summary, Thailand faces long-term, accumulated problems including an aging society, labor shortages, and dependence on fossil fuels. Short-term measures like cash handouts are seen as temporary fixes. The real solution lies in restructuring the economy, leveraging AI/robot technology, and creating opportunities for Thais to have stable incomes to cope with a challenging future.