Bangkok: The Thai economy in the latter half of 2026 is confronting a severe challenge, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Mongkol Leelatham, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Sammaphich Foundation, describes this period as even more challenging than the Tom Yum Kung crisis, referring to it as a "crisis within a crisis" that has pushed numerous businesses into a critical state, necessitating intensive care.
According to Thai News Agency, three factors are contributing to the vulnerability of Thai SMEs. Mongkol Leelatham identifies these as market shrinkage and substitution, soaring costs with thin profit margins, and a debt trap coupled with liquidity shortages. He explains that the influx of cheaper, higher-quality foreign products into Thailand via digital platforms makes adaptation difficult for local businesses. Additionally, rising energy, interest, and labor costs have diminished the gross profit margins of some SMEs to less than 1%, which is insufficient to mitigate risks. Financial institutions have also tightened lending for over 15 quarters, leaving SMEs without the necessary working capital to fulfill orders despite receiving them.
To address these challenges, the "Traffic Light Model" strategy has been proposed, categorizing businesses based on their competitiveness to ensure targeted solutions. The Red Group consists of businesses that need to change careers due to lost competitiveness. The Yellow Group includes businesses that are managing but require debt restructuring and a focus on maintaining cash flow. The Green Group comprises businesses with promising futures that align with global trends, which require full government support.
Mongkol Leelatham emphasizes the importance of creating added value through sustainable occupations, leveraging local wisdom and raw materials. Examples include increasing the value of products like "grilled bananas" and promoting "Pad Thai" as a global soft power product.
A significant challenge for the government is moving away from a "one-size-fits-all" approach. The government needs to reduce energy costs, unlock criteria for state-owned banks to approve loans based on actual income or orders, and upgrade the skills of local people, such as transforming tuk-tuk drivers into multilingual street guides.
In conclusion, as uncertainty prevails, Thai SMEs must focus on managing operations using member data, understanding consumer behavior, and maintaining a gross profit margin of over 20% to survive. Despite the difficulties, Mongkol Leelatham remains hopeful, asserting that recognizing one's inner potential is key to overcoming the challenges of 2026.