Washington: The war, which lasted nearly four months, ended on Sunday with posts on X and Truth Social. There was no emergency meeting, no UN Security Council session, just a mediator named Pakistan and the US President signaling, "The nuclear dust can wait; there's no rush."
According to Thai News Agency, the absence of disclosed details about the nuclear verification mechanism raises questions about the deal's credibility. Historically, the lack of verification has been a critical failure point in nuclear agreements, as seen with the 2015 JCPOA. The current deal, devoid of such details, suggests a precarious foundation.
The geopolitical implications are significant. With the Strait of Hormuz open, approximately 20% of the world's oil can flow again, potentially lowering global oil prices. This development might negatively impact oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while benefiting energy-dependent regions such as Europe. Pakistan's role as a mediator is noteworthy, given its nuclear capabilities and ties with both Iran and the United States, offering it diplomatic leverage in the region.
For ordinary people, the war's end brings mixed feelings. Thai workers in the Persian Gulf have faced disruptions, yet despite the open strait, full confidence remains elusive for employers. In Iran, citizens continue to grapple with over 40% inflation and a devalued currency, with the promise of lifted sanctions still a distant reality. Meanwhile, Thai drivers might soon benefit from lower oil prices, though this could slow the country's renewable energy and EV initiatives.
Psychologically, there is a tendency for "Peace Euphoria," where optimism bias leads markets and media to celebrate prematurely. The narrative of "Trump as a peacemaker" serves as a potent political tool ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, regardless of the deal's long-term success.
The phrase "no rush" concerning nuclear material is telling. It may indicate either confidence in Iran's cooperation or ongoing negotiations. Such language often highlights vulnerabilities in international agreements. Should this deal fail in the coming months, clues might surface via shifts in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, or another social media announcement.