Bangkok: In the realm of international relations, a significant milestone was recently reached when the United States and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the war and hostilities that have lasted for over 47 years since 1979. Associate Professor Dr. Muhammad Ilyas Yaprung, a lecturer in the Faculty of Political Science at Ramkhamhaeng University, analyzed that this is the first step toward a permanent peace treaty within a 60-day timeframe.
According to Thai News Agency, one of the most interesting points in this MOU is the US assurance that it will lift all sanctions against Iran, which include resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the IAEA, secondary sanctions that previously hindered third countries like Thailand or Malaysia from doing business with Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to allow commercial ships to transport oil normally again, and ending Iran's nuclear weapons development to maintain a balance of power in the Middle East.
Regarding the golden opportunity for Thailand, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Muhammad emphasized that Iran possesses vast natural gas resources that have been blockaded for a long time. This lifting of restrictions therefore presents a significant opportunity for Thailand, given the close relationship between Thailand and Iran that has existed for over 400 years. Thailand can leverage this special relationship to expand trade and investment, gaining an advantage over other countries. Furthermore, in the short term, the global oil market has reacted positively, leading to an immediate downward trend in oil prices following the signing of the agreement.
While it's good news, this signing has political implications within the United States, particularly regarding the midterm elections in November, which President Trump wants to use in his campaign. However, the path to peace may not be smooth, as there are complications that could become obstacles, including Israel's stance expressing dissatisfaction with this MOU, as it views itself as a loser from the war, problems in southern Lebanon where the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah (supported by Iran) could delay or derail negotiations on the details of the MOU, and uncertainty in statements as Trump continues to signal that he is prepared to resort to military measures if negotiations do not reach an agreement.
Over the next 60 days, the world must closely monitor the details of the negotiations. Although there is a risk that the agreement could be dragged out for months due to issues of nuclear weapons and sovereignty, initially, humanity can be somewhat relieved that the tensions affecting the global economy are beginning to resolve.