Bangkok: GDP growth in 2026 is anticipated to surpass 2% if the ongoing conflict ends, according to Supajee, who expects a significant improvement in economic conditions once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. This optimism hinges on the United States signing a peace agreement with Iran.
According to Thai News Agency, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce, Supachie Suthamphan, commented on the United States' plans to formally sign an agreement to end the war with Iran, expressing a positive outlook for the economy. Supachie stated that the export target for the first quarter of 2026 is promising, and expectations remain positive for continued growth. However, he emphasized the need for close monitoring and preparedness as the situation develops.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical factor, with the current situation remaining unchanged until a ceasefire is signed. Supachie highlighted the potential benefits of such an agreement for all parties involved. He called for vigilance over the next few days and stressed the importance of readiness to address any arising challenges. The Ministry of Commerce will be closely monitoring commodity prices and implementing various measures, with a summary expected soon.
When questioned about the need for GDP forecast revisions, Ms. Supajee noted that the first quarter's GDP figure stood at 2.8%. She mentioned that a revision might be necessary, as the projected GDP for 2026 is between 1.5% and 2% if the situation does not change. However, with the potential clarity brought by the peace agreement, GDP growth is expected to improve. The resolution of disruptions in goods transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the anticipated easing of energy prices are likely to enhance purchasing power and trade.