Bangkok: The Meteorological Department has announced that Thailand is currently experiencing the onset of an El Ni±o phase, with projections indicating a 63% likelihood of the phenomenon intensifying into a very severe event between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. This development poses significant concerns for the country, including below-normal rainfall and a heightened risk of drought in several regions.
According to Thai News Agency, data from the National Weather Service shows that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have consistently surpassed normal levels, signaling the arrival of El Ni±o. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also predicts a 63% chance of this phenomenon evolving into a very strong El Ni±o between November 2026 and January 2027.
The Meteorological Department anticipates that the influence of El Ni±o will lead to below-normal rainfall in the latter half of the year, increasing the risk of drought, particularly in areas reliant on rainfall and agriculture. Cumulative rainfall data from May 15 to June 14, 2026, indicates an average of 231.5 millimeters, 16% above the normal average, yet some regions experienced below-average rainfall, notably in the eastern, central, northeastern, and eastern southern parts of the country.
As of June 14, 2026, the nationwide cumulative rainfall was recorded at 423 millimeters, 10% below normal. The central region reported a 24% deficit, the eastern region 23%, the northeastern region 8%, and the eastern coast of the southern region 39% below average. This situation highlights the ongoing need to monitor and manage potential water shortages in the upcoming period.
The Meteorological Department also forecasts that Thailand's average temperatures are likely to rise above normal levels due to El Ni±o, potentially resulting in colder-than-average winter conditions in some areas. They urge water management agencies, the agricultural sector, and the public to remain vigilant, especially in rain-dependent and non-irrigated regions, and to prepare water management strategies to mitigate potential water shortages if El Ni±o intensifies as anticipated in late 2026 and early 2027.