Bangkok: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Thailand's GDP growth will decelerate to 2.1% in 2025, with a further slowdown to 1.6% in 2026, amidst rising economic risk factors. The IMF anticipates that inflation will gradually align with the 13% target by 2027, advising Thailand to adopt a prudent policy mix and focus on targeted fiscal measures to manage high public debt.
According to Thai News Agency, Mr. Peter Breuer, Chief of Staff of the IMF, shared insights from the IMF's Article IV Consultation 2025 following the organization's official visit to Thailand from October 30 to November 13, 2025. Despite the Thai economy expanding by 3% in the first half of 2025, surpassing the IMF's initial estimates, overall growth is forecasted to slow, with the economy facing uncertainties and downside risks.
The IMF emphasizes the need for Thai authorities to implement a cautious fiscal policy and a credible medium-term consolidation strategy due to high public debt levels. While the current accommodative monetary policy is deemed suitable, further easing may be necessary to address demand-side and inflationary pressures. Additionally, with household debt remaining high, the IMF suggests expediting credit access restoration through debt-reducing financial measures. The Thai authorities are taking steps to stimulate the economy and address structural issues while maintaining fiscal discipline and policy sustainability.
The IMF acknowledges the Thai government's efforts in launching new economic measures and projects, stressing the importance of expediting these initiatives alongside structural reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness. The Thai government has engaged with the IMF's preliminary assessment, agreeing on several points, including the necessity for prudent policies and structural reforms to ensure sustainable growth.