Bangkok: Researchers at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) reveal that in the first four months of the year following Trump's tariffs, Thai exports to the United States continued to grow, pending a ruling from the US Supreme Court on the Trump tax case.
According to Thai News Agency, Supanut Sasiwutthiwan, an academic at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), analyzed the Thai-U.S. trade situation in an article titled "The Thai Economy and the Trump Tariff Game: What Risks Await Us in 2026?" He noted that after the U.S. announced and implemented retaliatory tariffs about 4-5 months ago, many countries, such as China and Germany, experienced a decrease in exports to the U.S., while some countries, like Vietnam and Thailand, saw a significant increase in exports.
Thai exports to the US increased by 29.6% in August-November 2025 compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by electronic goods such as laptops and routers, which remain exempt from tariffs. However, exports of some items began to slow down, such as hard disk drives, which contracted by 17% in August-November compared to the previous year. Overall import tariffs are likely to rise due to the US imposing tariffs higher than 19% on key Thai exports such as trucks and parts (25%). The exemption from retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products has had a limited impact, as Thailand exports a low proportion of these goods to the US.
The trade outlook for 2026 remains highly uncertain, as the United States continues to adjust the details of its tariff measures. While easing tariffs on certain items and granting additional tariff exemptions to trading partners who have reached market opening agreements, there is also the risk of the United States imposing stricter tariffs, particularly on counterfeit goods from China. This could significantly impact Thai exports to the United States.
Two risks await Thailand in 2026: concerns about future tariffs on electronic goods and the potential for counterfeiting. In early 2026, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether Trump's retaliatory tariffs constitute an abuse of executive power. If ruled that it was an abuse of power, the retaliatory tariffs will be terminated, and the ruling will not affect the tariffs on specific goods under Section 232, which the US is expanding to include more items. Currently, several items are under investigation and consideration, such as semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, industrial machinery, and robots. A worrying risk for Thailand is that the investigation into semiconductor goods extends to related products, which could potentially include Thailand's main electronic exports currently exempt from tariffs. Therefore, if these tariffs are imposed, it will significantly impact Thai exports.
Thailand may face heavier tariffs due to U.S. measures to protect strategic industries. Although the U.S. exempted import tariffs on over 200 agricultural products in November 2025, this only partially boosted Thai agricultural exports. This is because Thailand exported approximately 1.73% of its total U.S. agricultural products to the U.S. in 2024 from these tariffs. At the same time, the U.S. has added more products to the list of goods subject to specific tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to protect strategic industries crucial to national security. These tariffs are often higher than the 19% currently imposed on Thailand. Therefore, businesses must be aware of this risk.